XGBoost and Random Forest Based SME Export Readiness Prediction for African Digital Entrepreneurship Ecosystem Development
Abstract
Small and medium-sized enterprises are central to African economic diversification, yet many digitally enabled SMEs lack reliable decision-support systems for assessing export readiness before entering regional and international markets. This paper proposes a technical machine learning framework for predicting SME export readiness within African digital entrepreneurship ecosystems using a novel hybrid ensemble model named ExportReadiness-XRFNet, which integrates XGBoost, Random Forest, feature-weighted stacking, and probability calibration. The model is designed to classify SMEs into low, moderate, and high export-readiness categories using structured indicators such as digital capability, financial stability, product standardization, logistics preparedness, regulatory compliance, market intelligence, e-commerce adoption, and cross-border payment readiness. The proposed model is compared with Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting, standalone Random Forest, and standalone XGBoost models. Graph-based performance analysis, including accuracy curves, ROC-AUC plots, confusion matrices, feature-importance rankings, and precision-recall comparisons, is used to evaluate predictive superiority. The expected results demonstrate that the hybrid ExportReadiness-XRFNet model achieves stronger classification accuracy, improved recall for export-ready SMEs, better handling of nonlinear feature interactions, and more interpretable readiness drivers than conventional baseline models. The study contributes a scalable AI-based decision-support framework for policymakers, SME development agencies, export-promotion councils, fintech platforms, and digital entrepreneurship hubs seeking to identify, support, and scale African SMEs with high export potential.
How to Cite This Article
Bright Amankwah, Joy Onma Enyejo (2025). XGBoost and Random Forest Based SME Export Readiness Prediction for African Digital Entrepreneurship Ecosystem Development . International Journal of Foreign Trade and International Business Upgradation (IJFTIBU), 6(2), 51-66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54660/.IJFTIBU.2025.6.2.51-66